Madden-Julian Oscillation as simulated by the MPI earth system model: Over the last and into the next Millennium

The Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO), as represented by the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology Earth System Model (MPI-ESM), is analyzed for the first time over time periods ranging from decades to more than a millennium. Particular attention is paid to the behavior of the MJO index as calculated from the leading pair of empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs) derived from a multivariate EOF analysis. The analysis of 1000 year simulations with the MPI-ESM and its predecessor reveals significant interannual (2–6 years) to interdecadal (10–20 years) internal variability of the MJO but relatively little evidence of significant variability at longer timescales in unforced runs. A 1200 year experiment forced by the best estimates of solar variability, volcanism, and changing atmospheric composition indicates that the MJO simulated in the twentieth century is very similar to the MJO simulated since AD 800. The analysis of sensitivity experiments shows the influence of different external forcings: solar variability may contribute to MJO variability on 11 and 22 year periods, but this is difficult to separate from internal variability; and there is a hint of enhanced decadal variability associated with volcanic forcing. Land use change and changes associated with anthropogenic forcing over the twentieth century have no detectable effect on the simulated MJO. An increase of the CO2 concentrations by 1% per year starting in AD 1850 leads to an increase in the MJO strength in the twenty-first century, as does the warming associated with an abrupt quadrupling of the atmospheric CO2 concentration, suggesting that the MJO may intensify with warming

Improved MJO-simulation in ECHAM6.3 by coupling a stochastic multicloud model to the convection scheme

We implement a Stochastic Multicloud Model (SMCM) in an observation-informed configuration into the convection scheme of the state-of-the-art GCM ECHAM6.3. The SMCM configuration we use here has been tuned to represent observed tropical convection by associating the occurrence and strength of deep convection to mid-tropospheric vertical velocity and relative humidity. We show that compared to the ECHAM6.3 standard model, the SMCM-modified version shows improved capacity to simulate features of tropical intraseasonal variability, including MJO-like disturbances, without significantly distorting the mean model climate. This improvement goes in hand with ameliorated coupling of atmospheric convection to tropospheric moisture and spatiotemporal coherence of tropical convection compared to reanalysis and observations. We attribute these effects to (i) improved coupling of triggering and suppression of deep convective events to the model's large-scale environment and (ii) the observations-informed closure formulation which leads to an overall reduction of deep convective mass fluxes. Sensitivity tests show that while (ii) improves the convection-moisture relationship, it is (i) which improves the spatiotemporal coherence of tropical rainfall and is important for MJO simulation. Further, the simulated spatiotemporal coherence of tropical rainfall is an intrinsic property of the convection schemes themselves and not of their parameters. We stress that this study serves as a proof-of-concept and motivates further efforts towards building a novel convection parameterization with the SMCM as a central element. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved

The influence of regional circulation patterns on wet and dry mineral dust and sea salt deposition over Greenland

Annually resolved ice core records from different regions over the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) are used to investigate the spatial and temporal variability of calcium (Ca2+, mainly from mineral dust) and sodium (Na+, mainly from sea salt) deposition. Cores of high common inter-annual variability are grouped with an EOF analysis, resulting in regionally representative Ca2+ and Na+ records for northeastern and central Greenland. Utilizing a regression and validation method with ERA-40 reanalysis data, these common records are associated with distinct regional atmospheric circulation patterns over the North American Arctic, Greenland, and Central to Northern Europe. These patterns are interpreted in terms of transport and deposition of the impurities. In the northeastern part of the GrIS sea salt records reflect the intrusion of marine air masses from southeasterly flow. A large fraction of the Ca2+ variability in this region is connected to a circulation pattern suggesting transport from the west and dry deposition. This pattern is consistent with the current understanding of a predominantly Asian source of the dust deposited over the GrIS. However, our results also indicate that a significant fraction of the inter-annual dust variability in NE and Central Greenland is determined by the frequency and intensity of wet deposition during the season of high atmospheric dust loading, rather than representing the variability of the Asian dust source and/or long-range transport to Greenland. The variances in the regional proxy records explained by the streamfunction patterns are high enough to permit reconstructions of the corresponding regional deposition regimes and the associated circulation pattern

Patterns of Pacific decadal variability recorded by Indian Ocean corals

We investigate Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) signals recorded by two bimonthly resolved coral δ18O series from La Réunion and Ifaty (West Madagascar), Indian Ocean from 1882 to 1993. To isolate the main PDO frequencies, we apply a band pass filter to the time series passing only periodicities from 16 to 28 years. We investigate the covariance patterns of the coral time series with sea surface temperature (SST) and sea level pressure (SLP) of the Indian and Pacific Oceans. In addition, the empirical orthogonal functions of the filtered SST and SLP fields (single and coupled) are related to the filtered coral times series. The covariance maps show the typical PDO pattern for SST and SLP, confirming the coupling between the Indian and Pacific Oceans. Both corals show the strongest signal in boreal summer. The La Réunion (Ifaty) coral better records SST (SLP) than SLP (SST) pattern variability. We suggest that the filtered La Réunion coral δ18O represents δ18O of seawater that varies with the South Equatorial Current, which, in turn, is linked with the SST PDO. The filtered Ifaty coral δ18O represents SST and is remotely linked with the SLP PDO variability. A combined coral record of the Ifaty and La Réunion boreal summer δ18O series explains about 64% of the variance of the coupled SST/SLP PDO time series

Madagascar corals track sea surface temperature variability in the Agulhas Current core region over the past 334 years

The Agulhas Current (AC) is the strongest western boundary current in the Southern Hemisphere and is key for weather and climate patterns, both regionally and globally. Its heat transfer into both the midlatitude South Indian Ocean and South Atlantic is of global significance. A new composite coral record (Ifaty and Tulear massive Porites corals), is linked to historical AC sea surface temperature (SST) instrumental data, showing robust correlations. The composite coral SST data start in 1660 and comprise 200 years more than the AC instrumental record. Numerical modelling exhibits that this new coral derived SST record is representative for the wider core region of the AC. AC SSTs variabilities show distinct cooling through the Little Ice Age and warming during the late 18th, 19th and 20th century, with significant decadal variability superimposed. Furthermore, the AC SSTs are teleconnected with the broad southern Indian and Atlantic Oceans, showing that the AC system is pivotal for inter-ocean heat exchange south of Africa

Propagation of the Madden–Julian Oscillation and scale interaction with the diurnal cycle in a high-resolution GCM

The Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) is the chief source of tropical intra-seasonal variability, but is simulated poorly by most state-of-the-art GCMs. Common errors include a lack of eastward propagation at the correct frequency and zonal extent, and too small a ratio of eastward- to westward-propagating variability. Here it is shown that HiGEM, a high-resolution GCM, simulates a very realistic MJO with approximately the correct spatial and temporal scale. Many MJO studies in GCMs are limited to diagnostics which average over a latitude band around the equator, allowing an analysis of the MJO’s structure in time and longitude only. In this study a wider range of diagnostics is applied. It is argued that such an approach is necessary for a comprehensive analysis of a model’s MJO. The standard analysis of Wheeler and Hendon (Mon Wea Rev 132(8):1917–1932, 2004; WH04) is applied to produce composites, which show a realistic spatial structure in the MJO envelopes but for the timing of the peak precipitation in the inter-tropical convergence zone, which bifurcates the MJO signal. Further diagnostics are developed to analyse the MJO’s episodic nature and the “MJO inertia” (the tendency to remain in the same WH04 phase from one day to the next). HiGEM favours phases 2, 3, 6 and 7; has too much MJO inertia; and dies out too frequently in phase 3. Recent research has shown that a key feature of the MJO is its interaction with the diurnal cycle over the Maritime Continent. This interaction is present in HiGEM but is unrealistically weak